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Christian Ochsner on the Long-Term Impact of the Spanish Flu Pandemic on Public Trust

12 June, 2025

In a new blog interview, Christian Ochsner discusses his latest CERGE-EI Working Paper Pandemics’ Backlash: The Effects of the 1918 Influenza on Health Attitudes and Behavior, which examines the long-term effects of pandemic mortality on public skepticism toward health policies.

What happens to public trust when a pandemic hits? Why do some people turn away from health authorities, while others become more compliant?

Using detailed data from Switzerland—where citizens regularly vote on public policies, including health measures—Christian tracks how local exposure to the Spanish flu pandemic shaped later attitudes toward mandatory vaccination. He finds that communities hit hardest by the flu became more skeptical of public health policies in the years that followed, even voting against existing vaccination laws. At the same time, families who experienced personal losses due to the flu were more likely to support and comply with health measures, including childhood vaccinations.

In the interview, Christian discusses these findings in depth. The conversation also explores how these historical patterns help explain what we’ve seen during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. “When something big and visible goes wrong, the institutions in charge—whether it’s the health authority, the central bank, or the government—can only lose. Their credibility tends to decline simply because the crisis happened on their watch,” Christian explains.

His work highlights a complex dynamic: the state may be caught in a no-win situation, facing both immediate expectations and long-term skepticism. These insights offer valuable lessons for modern policymakers—especially in how to manage trust before, during, and after public crises.

Christian Ochsner is an Assistant Professor at CERGE-EI, and a Research Associate at SIAW (University of St. Gallen) as well as a CESifo Research Affiliate. His research explores how critical historical events shape long-term socio-economic outcomes, using quasi-experimental methods that bridge development, regional, political, and health economics.

You can read the full interview here, and access the working paper here. You can also listen to our Talking Economics Podcast episode with Christian about regional economics.