Friday, 26 January, 2024 | 10:00 | Room 402 | Job Talk Seminar

Philipp Grübener (Goethe University Frankfurt) "Firm Dynamics and Earnings Risk"

Philipp Grübener, Ph.D.

Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany

Authors: Philipp Grübener, Filip Rozsypal

Abstract: We study the role of firm and worker level shocks for individual labor earnings dynamics. A key feature of the distribution of earnings changes is excess kurtosis, with substantial earnings changes for a significant proportion of workers. Using Danish matched employer-employee data, we show that large worker earnings changes occur along the entire firm revenue growth distribution but more frequently in the tails. In particular, large earnings losses are more likely in shrinking firms due to more employment separations, but also because of large wage losses of stayers. We interpret the evidence through the lens of an equilibrium search model with two-sided heterogeneity. The model reveals that while worker shocks account for the majority of earnings fluctuations, firm shocks generate around a third of endogenous separations and large wage losses for stayers. Finally, the model implies significant endogenous responses of earnings dynamics to policy changes aiming to insure workers directly or indirectly through firms.

JEL Classification: E24, E60, J63, J64, J68, H30
Keywords: Earnings Risk, Firm Dynamics, Search, Unemployment, Wages, Policy

Full Text: Firm Dynamics and Earnings Risk