Thursday, 8 March, 2012

14:00 | Defense - PhD

Anastasiya Shamshur: “Essays on Capital Structure Stability”

Dissertation Committee:
Jan Hanousek (chair)
Štěpán Jurajda
Evžen Kočenda
Jan Bena



Recent financial literature claims that capital structure of firms stays unchanged during the long periods of time. In my dissertation I investigate the question of capital structure stability from different angles. First chapter asks whether the macroeconomic volatility could be translated to capital structure adjustments. To answer this question I consider CEE countries during 1996 to 2006 period since those economies went through extensive economic changes including transition from central planning to market economy, large-scale privatization, and substantial economic reforms to become the EU member. Surprisingly, macroeconomic changes are not translated to capital structure changes. Therefore, second chapter focuses on causes of such puzzling behavior. I find that credit constraints firms facein obtaining finance are responsible for the observed pattern. Unconstrained firms are more active in adjusting their capital structure in response to economic changes. Moreover, firm's ownership plays an important role in explaining leverage of unconstrained firms. Third chapter studies changes in leverage in the context of M&As. I compare the leverage of both acquiring and acquired firms using difference-in-differences propensity score technique. I find that there is an increase in the leverage of acquiringfirms and no change in the leverage of the acquired firms.

Full Text: “Essays on Capital Structure Stability” by Anastasiya Shamshur

16:30 | Applied Micro Research Seminar

Mehdi Karoui JOB TALK

Mehdi Karoui

McGill University, Montreal, Canada

Option-Implied Equity Premia and the Predictability of Stock Market Returns


This paper proposes a novel approach to extracting option-implied equity premia, and empirically examines the information content of these risk premia for forecasting the stock market return. Our approach does not require specifying the functional form of the pricing kernel, and does not impose any restrictions on investors’ preferences. We only assume the existence of put and call options which complete the market, and show that the equity premium can be inferred from expected excess returns on a portfolio of options. An empirical investigation of S&P 500 index options yields the following conclusions: (i) the implied equity premium predicts stock market returns; (ii) the implied equity premium consistently outperforms variables commonly used in the forecasting literature both in- and out-of-sample; (iii) at the cross-sectional level, stocks that are more sensitive to the implied equity premium have higher returns on average.

Full Text: Option-Implied Equity Premia and the Predictability of Stock Market Returns