CERGE-EI Macroeconomics Forecasts

The last set of macroeconomic forecasts was released on January 15, 2009. Note that these forecasts are strictly based on time series econometric models and are not qualitatively adjusted in any way. Therefore, they should be perceived as predictions under the implicit assumption that the there are no qualitative changes in the underlying structure of the followed economies. As a result, it takes time before newly arriving data can affect the forecasts and they will be unrealistic for a number of quarters in the current rapidly changing economic environment, even if they were reliable up to late 2008. The currently forecasted values should thus be viewed as an illustration of the application of the forecasting methodology - a benchmark against which one can assess the severity of the current economic decline. From this perspective, they are not actual forecasts as understood by media and it was decided to suspend their publication for the moment. Meanwhile, we work on improved econometric models, which take into account structural breaks and strong exogenous shocks.

Detailed methodology description is available here. An Eviews workfile, a program, and an Excel Data file for the forecast calculation for the Czech Republic in 2008:Q3 can be downloaded here.

To receive an e-mail announcement about future forecasts, please send your e-mail address to the CERGE-EI Development & PR Coordinator.

Manager of the CERGE-EI forecasting project is Petr Zemcik

The forecasting project has been supported on by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic and by the following research projects: Ekonomicke dopady evropske integrace na CR [Economic Impact of European Integration on the Czech Republic], No.MSM0021620846, Ekonomicke aspekty vstupu do Evropske unie a Evropske menove unie [Economic Aspects of EU and EMU Entry], No.AV Z70850503.